Modeling the high-impact-low-probability oil spills in the Mediterranean Svitlana Liubartseva Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy Giovanni Coppini Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy Pierre Daniel Département Prévision Marine et Océanographique, France Megi Hoxhaj Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy This is a section of Tenth InternationaSymposium Monitoring of Mediterranean Coastal Areas: Problems and Measurement Techniques(DOI: 10.36253/979-12-215-0556-6) by Laura Bonora, Marcantonio Catelani, Matteo De Vincenzi, Giorgio Matteucci Firenze University Press Florence 2024 https://doi.org/10.36253/979-12-215-0556-6.79

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Despite considerable efforts to improve scientific understanding and risk management, governments and businesses remain insufficiently prepared to confront large oil spills considered to be the so called ‘high-impact low-probability’ disasters. To alleviate this problem, we focus on the historical HAVEN oil spill (off the Port of Genoa, 1991) recognized not only as the largest shipwreck in the European waters, but also as one of the worst oil pollution cases in the Med. We reconstruct this spill with the Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II forced by the to-date high resolution meteo-oceanographic datasets. Moreover, we run the HAVEN oil spill scenario stochastically sampling virtual spills randomly in space and time. The results are presented as the pollution hazard indices in probabilistic terms, which is supposed to be a representative indicator of future accidents. The highest indices are found in the Alboran Sea, Algerian and Liguro-Provençal subbasins, and in the center of the Ionian Sea. Conversely, the southern part of the Ionian, the areas east of Sardinia and west of Corsica, the Gulf of Lion, the northern Adriatic, and north-eastern Aegean Sea do not reveal high hazards.

 Oil spill modeling Hazard mapping Copernicus Marine Service

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